Mortgage Market Update, October 2026

The small increase in the Federal Funds rate had little impact on mortgage rates, as it was widely expected. Mortgage rates remain elevated over pre-war levels, with 30-year fixed rates in the 6.00% to 7.00% range.

What’s keeping rates up

• Higher oil prices are contributing to inflation, a concern for our new Fed Chairman.
• Solid corporate earnings and a solid job market lead me to believe rates will remain higher through the end of the year.
• A lack of fiscal restraint from both parties is also contributing.

Who’s buying our debt

The deficit seems to be a taboo topic in Washington and Sacramento, but investors in Treasury notes and bonds (largely sovereign nations) are voting with their feet. China, one of our largest trading partners, held $1.04 trillion in US Treasury securities in 2021 and has steadily reduced its holdings to roughly $618 billion as of July.

The bottom line

If you’re holding out for the return of 3% and 4% mortgage rates, you need to let that go… If you’re buying or thinking about tapping your equity, call me and we’ll find the right fit…

Originally published in The Trusted Advisor, October 2026.